Migrants can be positive forces for both economic and social development - UN

The high-income countries in Europe, North America and Oceania have since the end of World War II been net receivers of migrants. In these countries, births are expected to exceed deaths by 20 million by 2050. But in the same period, the net gain in migrants would be 91 million, accounting for nearly all (82%) of the population growth in high-income countries.

 

Secondly, Europe’s population is ageing, and fast. Nearly a quarter (24%, which is double the global average) of the continent’s citizens are aged 60 and over, more than any other region. European life expectancy is currently at 77 years, by 2100 it could be 87. A measure called the Potential Support Ratio (PSR) and which counts the number of workers per retiree in countries, shows the effect of this trend.

As would be expected, because of its young population structure where 60% are aged 24 years and below, Africa has the highest PSR of 12.9 people aged between 20-64 for every citizen aged 65 and over. Europe in contrast has a ratio of 4 or less, and by 2050, half of its countries will dip under two. Japan’s ageing population is well documented—it has a PSR of 2.1, the lowest in the world.

With an ageing population comes fiscal pressure, including on the social indicators of health and old-age support systems, and subsequently political pressure. It would thus be in Europe’s interest to tap the growing migrant population for more economic growth and to forestall the impending fall out. In other words, the continent’s scare-mongering right-leaning politicians are yet to really feel the heat. 

Migrants can be positive forces for both economic and social development, including in labour markets and in speeding up the diffusion of new ideas and technologies, according to the UN. Europe just has to make integration work. That is where the real savings are.

Put bluntly, Europe can only survive as a continent of immigrants from the developing world.