Burundian President, Pierre Nkurunziza has
won a predicted but controversial third consecutive term in office, according
to official election results announced Friday.
Nkurunziza
won 69.41% of the vote in Tuesday’s vote, handing him an immediate first-round
victory, the election commission said.
Nkurunziza’s candidacy was denounced as
unconstitutional by the opposition and provoked months of protests and an
attempted coup in the central African nation.
Although
eight candidates were on the ballot paper for the presidential polls, most
withdrew from the race, with the closure of most independent media preventing
them from campaigning.
Anti-Nkurunziza
protests have been violently repressed, leaving at least 100 people dead since
late April. Many opponents have also fled, joining an exodus of more than
150,000 ordinary Burundians who fear their country may again be engulfed by
widespread violence.
In mid-May,
rebel generals attempted to overthrow Nkurunziza in a coup, which failed. They
have since launched a rebellion in the north of the country.
Latest in a
string of attacks, four people were wounded in a grenade attack overnight
Thursday on the house of an official from Nkurunziza’s ruling CNDD-FDD party.
The
government has dismissed criticism of the poll, which the United States,
European Union and former colonial power Belgium said lacked credibility.
“Now the hard
part starts for Nkurunziza, because Burundi is in a pre-conflict situation,”
said Thierry Vircoulon, a researcher with the International Crisis Group (ICG)
as the vote ended.
A Burundian
analyst and researcher, who asked not to be named, said the president would be
starting his third consecutive five-year mandate with a key handicap — his lack
of legitimacy.
“The second
is economic and social, because the country is already in a recession. The loss
of some aid coupled with a decrease in domestic revenue will be very painful,”
said the analyst. “But his biggest challenge will be one of peace and security,
given the violence and divisions brought about by his candidacy,” he
said.
“Part of the
opposition has radicalised and increasingly thinks he only understands one
language, that of violence.”
Faced with
these challenges, Nkurunziza must choose between offering a gesture of peace to
his frustrated opponents, or taking an even harder line.
Diplomats say
Nkurunziza will be under pressure to offer concessions to the opposition and
key donors, and sources from the ruling CNDD-FDD party have signalled a series
of conciliatory measures will be taken.
These could
include the formation of a national unity government, the release of
demonstrators who were detained during weeks of street protests and the
reopening of private radio stations that were shut during the coup
attempt.
“For the
short-term, Nkurunziza will make concessions, hoping for a softening of the
positions of international partners,” said Vircoulon.
“But this
will not work in practice because there is nothing left to negotiate, and the
opposition has radicalised and expanded.”
The Burundian
analyst also said that in seeking to maintain his position and fight off coup
plotters and defectors, Nkurunziza has purged intellectuals and moderates in
favour of hardliners, “who will want to go all the way rather than seek
compromise”.
These
hardliners mainly include the old guard of the CNDD-FDD, a former Hutu rebel
group that came out on top after the 1993-2006 civil war that left 300,000 dead.
According to
French academic, Christian Thibon, Burundi’s leadership may well choose to
follow the path of the isolationist, paranoid and authoritarian Horn of Africa
state of Eritrea. “Burundi has gone from being a badly-managed state of law to
being a lawless state,” said the Burundian analyst.
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