IMF Headquarters |
The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other
central banks in Africa to allow their currencies to depreciate in order to absorb
shocks to their economies.
The multilateral donor
agency pointed out that resisting currency pressure depletes foreign exchange
reserves and results in weaker imports.
The IMF stated this in
its 134-page Regional Economic Outlook for October 2015 posted on its website
yesterday.
According to the IMF, in
a few highly dollarised economies on the continent, the recent exchange rate
depreciation could also increase financial sector vulnerabilities.
“And in such economies,
the recent depreciation of some currencies on the continent would increase the
value in local currency of dollar-denominated liabilities, and hence the debt
service burden for unhedged borrowers, potentially exposing banks to losses–even
though banks themselves generally have only limited currency,” it stated
further.
“Meanwhile, some central
banks have intervened in the market to contain exchange rate volatility, and
others, most notably oil exporters, have drawn on their external buffers to
smooth the adjustment to lower commodity prices.”
“Some countries,
including Angola and Nigeria, have also introduced administrative measures to
stem the demand for foreign currency, significantly hampering the conduct of
private sector activities in the process.”
“Given the strong
headwinds to activity in commodity-exporting countries, banks could well see a
worsening of the quality of their assets. Recent analysis suggests that
financial stability indicators in natural-resource-rich countries, such as bank
profitability or nonperforming loans, tend to deteriorate and the probability
of systemic banking crises tends to increase in the wake of negative commodity
price shocks.”
“Such spillovers to the
financial sector are likely to weigh on credit supply and the process of
financial deepening witnessed over the last few years, especially in
oil-exporting countries, where credit growth had been particularly strong—with
detrimental effects on both growth and economic diversification,” it stated.
Commenting on the
infrastructure bottlenecks in the region, the IMF said that despite substantial
investment efforts throughout Africa, infrastructure bottlenecks have long been
an impediment to attracting new activities and fostering trade integration.
These bottlenecks, it pointed out, have come to the forefront even more acutely recently for a wide range of countries.
These bottlenecks, it pointed out, have come to the forefront even more acutely recently for a wide range of countries.
“Load shedding and
electricity shortages, triggered by delays in upgrading aging power plants and
filling the power generation gaps, have become a regular occurrence in Ghana
and South Africa, with particularly acute effects in the manufacturing sector.”
“Worsening conditions in
electricity supply have also been severely hampering activity in a few other
countries (Comoros, Madagascar, Nigeria and Zambia),” it added.
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