Thailand faced with worst drought in decades

A dried-out canal in Nakhon Sawan province (Heavenly City), north of Bangkok.

Widespread drought and sweltering heat have left much of Thailand as well as Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam in dire need of water for both crops and residents

People in parts of Thailand are struggling to make ends meet as the country faces its worst drought in decades.

It is the effect of a phenomenon known as El Nino, which has caused much lower rainfall than usual over the past two years.

Across much of central and north-eastern Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam's Mekong Delta rice bowl, temperatures are soaring into the 40s, and are likely to stay there until around the middle of next month. 

A second year of summer drought has been exacerbated by the El Nino effect. On Friday, Thailand's meteorological office said a heatwave late this month or early next month would push temperatures to 43 deg C or 44 deg C. 

In a related event, Vietnam's coffee growers have suffered as have Thailand's rice farmers. But while a supply dip could raise coffee prices, rice prices might not be affected, analysts say. 

Scientists say the good news is the El Nino effect will start fading towards the end of next month and annual monsoon rains will begin.

Meanwhile, in village after village, water tanks are dry, grass has withered and the ground is baked and cracked underfoot.

In some villages in north-eastern Thailand, there has been no running water for weeks, and local fire brigades have been pressed into service to bring water from kilometres away. In many places here, for the second year running, there has been no second rice crop.

How bad the impact of the drought will be on agricultural output, not just of rice in Vietnam and Thailand but of commodities such as coffee in Vietnam is still uncertain.

In Thailand, Mr. Vichai Sriprasert, the president and chief executive of exporter Riceland International, estimates that the second rice crop could suffer a 30 per cent fall in output.

It is a close estimate, says Dr. Nipon Poapongsakorn, a distinguished fellow of the Thailand Development Research Institute Foundation, a local think-tank.

But the second rice crop is only part of Thailand's output, he emphasises. Even though there is not yet enough data to conclusively establish the impact of the drought, the main crop yield last year came to 23.5 million tonnes, while the dry season or second crop yield was 5.4 million tonnes.

This year, the main crop yield is forecast to be up to 25.2 million tonnes - and the second crop should go down to around 3.9 million tonnes, says Dr. Nipon.

Thailand is not in danger of experiencing a rice supply shortage, given that it still has some 13 million tonnes of old rice in warehouses, Mr. Vichai notes.

The second crop yield has never been this low, he says. Yet, world rice prices, which have been low, will remain low, he predicts - because demand is also down, amid an uncertain global economic environment.