Somalia Islamist attacks suggest Al-Shabaab may not be defeated by 2016

A Somali soldier guards outside a military intelligence base in Mogadishu

A wave of recent attacks by al-Shabaab militants in  Somalia, including on African Union (AU) peacekeepers’ bases, shows the threat still posed by the al-Qaeda-linked group that the government has vowed to defeat by 2016.

Several Somali soldiers were killed overnight Sunday when al-Shabaab fighters attacked a base in the southern Kismayo region, officials and witnesses said Monday.

Heavy gunfire was reported late Sunday for several hours, with the al-Shabaab briefly taking over the camp near Kismayo and beheading some of those captured before looting supplies and leaving, witnesses said.

In another attack, al-Shabaab said it killed at least 30 soldiers, many of them AU peacekeepers from Burundi, in a June 26 raid on Leego base in southern Somalia.

The AU confirmed the assault, without giving a death toll. The violence, which came the same day as attacks by other extremists on a French factory, a Tunisian beach and a mosque in Kuwait, underscores the limited success of Somalia’s army and African troops in checking al- Shabaab’s seven-year-old insurgency.

While they've lost control of key towns, “al-Shabaab has consistently shown its ability to strike in urban areas and regroup in rural bases,” Ahmed Soliman, Horn of Africa analyst at Chatham House, the London-based research group, said by e-mail. “It will take much longer to defeat the group and require Somalia’s security services to be significantly improved.”

Regaining control of Somalia, wracked by more than two decades of civil war, is crucial to the government’s plan of inviting foreign investors to kick-start the economy.

Oil and gas output may begin by 2020 after exploration work showed the potential for large offshore deposits, while companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc are in talks about returning, according to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed.

The conflict has drawn in troops from countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Burundi as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia, or AMISOM.